NASA’s Aqua satellite revealed showed deep convection in Fabio dissipated by the morning of July 6. The system now consists of a swirl of low- to-mid-level clouds.
Despite the lack of strong thunderstorms and deep convection, Fabio is creating ocean swells that are affecting portions of the coasts of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
An infrared image taken on July 6 at 7 a.m. EDT (11 UTC) by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite showed no strong convection remained in Fabio. Coldest temperatures around Fabio’s center were near minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 40 degrees Celsius) and were limited to a very small area.
Strong convection can be found when cloud top temperatures exceed minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius), and MODIS imagery showed much warmer cloud top temperatures.
At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 21.5 degrees north and longitude 129.0 degrees west. That’s about 1,225 miles (1,970 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 kph).
The cyclone is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at a slower forward speed for the next couple of days, and then turn toward the west by the end of the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Fabio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today.
NHC forecaster Daniel Brown noted “the cyclone will be moving over sea surface temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius (too cold to maintain a tropical cyclone) very soon and into a more stable environment. As a result, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and continue to gradually spin down over the next 2 to 3 days. The global models indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough (elongated area) of low pressure in a little more than 3 days (July 9).
For updated forecasts from the NHC, visit: http://www.
By Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
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